The National Conference with the theme "Vietnam's economy in the post-new normal context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict: Any direction for the real estate and stock market" was organized by Ho Chi Minh University of Banking (HUB) and the Development Research Institute of Ho Chi Minh City on the afternoon of July 14, 2022 at Campus Hall 36 Ton That Dam, District 1 of HUB.
The conference was attended by panelists who are leading experts and scientists in Vietnam today such as: Prof. Dr. Tran Tho Dat - Chairman of the Council for the title of Professor of Economics; Assoc. Prof. Dr. Tran Hoang Ngan - Director of Ho Chi Minh City Research and Development Institute; Mr. Nguyen Duc Long - Director of Statistical Forecasting Department of the State Bank of Vietnam; Mr. Nguyen Xuan Thanh, economic expert - lecturer in public policy at Fulbright University Vietnam; Dr. Tran Anh Tuan- Deputy Director of Ho Chi Minh City Department of Planning and Investment; Assoc. Dr. Nguyen Khac Quoc Bao- Vice President of School of Technology & Design, University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City; Prof. Dr. Vo Xuan Vinh - Director of Business Research Institute - University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City; Mr. Hoang Cong Tuan - Chief Economist of MB Securities Company (MBS) and Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Duc Trung - Acting Rector of HUB chaired and coordinated the conference (Moderator).
In addition, the conference also had the participation of heads of faculties and units under HUB, leaders, lecturers, researchers of universities and research institutes; representatives of regulatory agencies, policy makers, commercial banks, securities companies, real estate companies, media agencies.
At the conference, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Duc Trung represented the research team of HUB reported an overview of the macroeconomic picture of the world and Vietnam in the first 6 months of 2022. The research team also provided some analysis and forecast for the macroeconomic scenario in the last 6 months of the year 2022 is based on the application of the artificial neural network (ANN) model and the overall dynamic equilibrium model DSGE on the Bayesian analysis platform recommended by the World Monetary Fund (IMF) for Vietnam. In addition, the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the stock markets of Asian countries and Vietnam has also been analyzed by the research team through the event study method.
In the last 6 months of 2022, according to economists, Vietnam will be affected by cost-push problems, global inflation, and the formation of a new post-normal state. Besides, with the world economic scenario in the last 6 months of 2022 being quite bleak, experts believe that the international financial and monetary situation has many fluctuations, putting pressure on Vietnam's economy. Therefore, the SBV needs to continue to operate monetary policy proactively, flexibly, closely coordinate with fiscal policy and other macroeconomic policies to control inflation according to the target, contributing to stabilizing inflation. macroeconomic, maintain stable currency and foreign exchange markets, and at the same time be ready to provide sufficient capital for the process of economic recovery and development. According to experts, in the last 6 months of 2022, policy management needs to pay attention to crisis management to stabilize the macro, it is necessary to solve long-term problems such as supply chain disruptions, avoid dependent on imported raw materials. In particular, it is necessary to quickly improve institutions, solve bottlenecks in public investment, and at the same time solve the problem of resource allocation in terms of capital, budget, and public assets. The government also needs to support gasoline prices so as not to cause an inflationary domino effect on the prices of other goods.
Regarding the direction for the stock and real estate markets, experts believe that in the medium and long term, there will be many prosperity because the market has fallen too deeply now, many stocks have been as low as or even lower than the price. book value. In particular, the securities codes of the financial - banking sector are really attractive. Many bank securities stocks have had a market price equal to their book value, so this is an opportunity to accumulate reasonable securities assets. In addition, in the first 6 months of 2022, the real estate market has faced many difficulties in terms of investment capital, scarcity of supply, especially in the affordable housing segment. Investment capital is strictly controlled due to inflation targets, and mobilization channels from corporate bonds are also limited. Although there are difficulties in the last 6 months of 2022, experts say that when the market is quiet, it is an opportunity for real needs as well as investors with a long-term vision.
The seminar followed the success of the series of annual macroeconomic seminars (HUB Macroeconomics Forum) held for the 9th time at Banking University of Ho Chi Minh City. Ho Chi Minh City, a large-scale economic forum, gathering the wisdom of scientists and economic experts in both the South and the North to analyze and evaluate the world macroeconomic situation. and Vietnam in order to advise the State Bank, Government agencies, ministries and sectors in policy formulation and administration; provide valuable recommendations to financial institutions, businesses and investors.
Some pictures of panelists and experts at the conference